While following a Twitter Conversation last night between one individual who self identifies with conservative viewpoints and an individual who obviously identifies with the left, the conversation turned to the subject of the Commodities/Futures Market. Of course the gut reaction of the leftist individual was to condemn it and supported increased regulations which would lead to their elimination. The conservative/constitutionist, who was obviously well educated on why the Commodities Markets exist and how they work, supported the need for the markets and generally a hands off approach.
The standard left line about the Commodities Markets is that the speculators are evil because speculation drives up the price of the commodity and in turn increases the cost to the consumer and therefore no benefit to society. This may be true in some cases but usually those effects are short lived and prices do return to levels supported by the current supply and demand. Also speculation tends to be a zero sum game with the money lost equalling the money gained within the market itself unlike the stock market where wealth is generated and increases over time are due to better production methods and higher efficiency.
So if the expected outcome within the Commodities Markets is actually equal to zero why do people speculate and why does the market exist. It exists for one reason and one reason only. It exists to provide a certain amount of economic stability to the producers and consumers of commodities.
Lets look at the following example for Farmer Brown.
First the facts: Farmer Brown has a farm with 5,000 workable acres.
Due to soil and location he can grow Corn or Soybeans.
Decision for Crop Type occurs 1 April.
Planting usually occurs in early May
Harvest occurs in late August
Crop is available for delivery in September
Farmer Brown notes that his expected profit based on the 1 April prices is about the same for both crops so he decides to grow Soybeans since there are some rumors going around that there is going to be a shortage of Soybeans come September when his crop will be available for delivery. Futures markets do not exist for Farmer Brown so he has no way to hedge his decision. Come September he finds out that everyone grew Soybeans and the price drops by 50% causing an actual loss. He can no longer pay his mortgage and he is foreclosed and is thrown out into the street.
Farmer Smith has the same size farm and the same decision to make only that in his country he has a Commodities/Futures market which allows him to lock in his price today for delivery later on. Whether the price goes up or down he has a set price, and a set profit which he uses to pay off his mortgage, send his kids to college, and not be a drag on society.
But how does this Commodities Market mumbo jumbo work? Farmer Smith has chosen to grow Corn since he has seen a bit of downward pressure on the price of Soybeans for September delivery and an uptick in Corn for the same month indicating there may be higher demand for corn.
Based on 180 Bushels/Acre for Corn Production he is expecting to produce 900,000 bushels of corn. Corn Contracts are normally written 5,000 bushels per contract so Farmer Smith decides to lock in the current futures price of corn at $5 per bushel for September delivery and sells 180 contracts. This is a short position therefore a drop in price will cause him to profit in his Futures Contracts but that in turn will be eaten up by his losses with regards to the actual corn he sells. Lets say at delivery the price per bushel has fallen to $4 per bushel. Because of his short position he has profited $900,000 in his futures contract but in turn he will receive $900,000 less than he originally expected for his crop that he produced. He has successfully hedged his risk and he locked in the price with little to no risk. It allowed him to successfully plan his business for the year by transferring his risk to the speculators.
The commodities market will also give indication of anticipated future supply. The producers are selling futures to hedge their risk. If there is a drop in the futures price it indicates that the commodity may be overproduced and the market self corrects by driving the producers to under produced products. Adam Smiths "invisible hand" which directs Market Capitalism is evidently displayed within the Commodity Markets everyday. Laissez Faire at its best.
Commodity Markets ensure that supply and demand are properly met and allows for future economic planning. Elimination of the commodity markets is possible but that leads to two things. Starvation for the entire nation or a Command Economy. A Command Economy usually takes the form of State Socialism, Communism, or Facism. So next time you hear a leftist state that commodity markets should be eliminated ask them what will take the place of the markets and who will set the prices?
Friday, October 26, 2012
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Obama continues to Lie About Tarp
President Obama was in Richmond today on the campaign trail. During his stump speech he again claimed that "Wall Street" has completely paid back the entire amount that was granted under the TARP program. This is simply not true. According to the "TARP TRACKER" on the Department of the Treasury website 89% of the TARP loans granted have been paid back. This is his own administration putting out information which he is contradicting on the stump.
Now 11% doesnt sound like much however that 11% is 46 billion dollars. Yes that is a B for a billion. According to several sources these are the financial institutions which still have not fully paid their loans back to the Federal Government.
Institution Amount Received Amount Paid Back Amount Owed
Citi Group 45 billion 20 billion 25 billion
AIG 40 billion 36 billion 4 billion
GMAC Ally 17 billion ------ 17 billion
Total Still Owed 46 billion
Chrysler Financial paid back their loans with cash and stock however that stock was sold at a loss of 1.3 billion dollars to Fiat.
Remember that TARP was not part of the auto industry bailout but only a bailout to the financial sector. GM and Chrysler got money under this program to bolster their financial auto lending programs.
At this point in time I would be very surprised if we get any more of this money back.
I also like how Obama touts this program as one of those programs he set up to get the world wide credit system running again. This is another part of his lie. The program was signed into law on October 3, 2008 by George W. Bush. There is a possibility that he voted for this legislation as he was still a Senator however he was normally too busy on his Hope and Change (more like Doom and Gloom) Campaign to even make an appearance in the Senate Chamber. Im not even sure he voted present on this bill. As to be fair to all, I went and checked and not only was he present on October 1, 2008 in the Senate Chamber he did put his neck out on the line and make a decision with a YES vote for TARP.
Will the lame stream media call him out on this lie. Come on whats there to report.... its only 46 billion dollars.
Now 11% doesnt sound like much however that 11% is 46 billion dollars. Yes that is a B for a billion. According to several sources these are the financial institutions which still have not fully paid their loans back to the Federal Government.
Institution Amount Received Amount Paid Back Amount Owed
Citi Group 45 billion 20 billion 25 billion
AIG 40 billion 36 billion 4 billion
GMAC Ally 17 billion ------ 17 billion
Total Still Owed 46 billion
Chrysler Financial paid back their loans with cash and stock however that stock was sold at a loss of 1.3 billion dollars to Fiat.
Remember that TARP was not part of the auto industry bailout but only a bailout to the financial sector. GM and Chrysler got money under this program to bolster their financial auto lending programs.
At this point in time I would be very surprised if we get any more of this money back.
I also like how Obama touts this program as one of those programs he set up to get the world wide credit system running again. This is another part of his lie. The program was signed into law on October 3, 2008 by George W. Bush. There is a possibility that he voted for this legislation as he was still a Senator however he was normally too busy on his Hope and Change (more like Doom and Gloom) Campaign to even make an appearance in the Senate Chamber. Im not even sure he voted present on this bill. As to be fair to all, I went and checked and not only was he present on October 1, 2008 in the Senate Chamber he did put his neck out on the line and make a decision with a YES vote for TARP.
Will the lame stream media call him out on this lie. Come on whats there to report.... its only 46 billion dollars.
Saturday, October 20, 2012
Gaming the Electoral College - My Version
Below you will find my current prediction for the upcoming Presidential Election. Call it my own personal electoral college map.
Of the states that have current active polling Obamas current RCP percentage has dropped an average of 7.41 percentage points compared to his 2008 actual voting numbers. Of the 21 states (plus 2 congressional districts in ME and NE) with active polling only Arizona has improved for Obama when compared to 2008 but Romney still has over a 5% lead in that state.
Of the eight states which Obama won in 2008 by less than 10 percentage points he maintains a very small lead in only two of them (OH and IA) however both are within the margin of error for most polls.
Now for the solid states for each candidate:
Arkansas 6 DC 3
Idaho 4 Hawaii 4
Kansas 6 Illinois 20
Kentucky 8 Maine 2
Louisiana 8 ME 1st 1
Mississippi 6 Maryland 10
Nebraska 2 Mass 11
NE 1st & 3rd 2 New York 29
N Dakota 3 Rhode Island 4
Oklahoma 7 Vermont 3
S Carolina 9 Washington 12
S Dakota 3
Tennessee 11
Texas 38
Utah 6
W Virginia 5
Wyoming 3
Indiana 11 Minnesota 10
Missouri 10 New Jersey 14
Montana 3 New Mexico 5
NE 2nd 1 Oregon 7
N. Carolina 15 Penn 20
Total: 67 Total: 79
N Hampshire 4 Nevada 6
Ohio 18
Virginia 13
Wisconsin 10
Maine 2nd Congressional District - Maine is one of two states which splits their electoral votes by district. This district was won by Obama by 11 percentage points in 2008. I have seen only one poll which actually put Romney up by 5 however I have doubts about this one. The district did get a bit of reshuffling in 2010 which may favor the republicans however the current congressman from that district has a huge lead over his republican challenger. This one I put in Obama's column. If you see this district go for Romney in election day polls it will be a long night for Obama and it will certainly show that the election is Romney's
Of the states that have current active polling Obamas current RCP percentage has dropped an average of 7.41 percentage points compared to his 2008 actual voting numbers. Of the 21 states (plus 2 congressional districts in ME and NE) with active polling only Arizona has improved for Obama when compared to 2008 but Romney still has over a 5% lead in that state.
Of the eight states which Obama won in 2008 by less than 10 percentage points he maintains a very small lead in only two of them (OH and IA) however both are within the margin of error for most polls.
Now for the solid states for each candidate:
Romney Obama
Alabama 9 California 55
Alaska 3 Delaware 3Arkansas 6 DC 3
Idaho 4 Hawaii 4
Kansas 6 Illinois 20
Kentucky 8 Maine 2
Louisiana 8 ME 1st 1
Mississippi 6 Maryland 10
Nebraska 2 Mass 11
NE 1st & 3rd 2 New York 29
N Dakota 3 Rhode Island 4
Oklahoma 7 Vermont 3
S Carolina 9 Washington 12
S Dakota 3
Tennessee 11
Texas 38
Utah 6
W Virginia 5
Wyoming 3
Total: 139 Total: 157
The above states have little or no
advertising and very minimal ground games. There is no active
polling and the vote percentages from the last election virtually
guarantee these votes are locked up.
Now for the states where each candidate
has at least a 5 percentage lead and I don't see them changing before
election day:
Romney Obama
Arizona 11 Connecticut 7
Georgia 16 Michigan 16Indiana 11 Minnesota 10
Missouri 10 New Jersey 14
Montana 3 New Mexico 5
NE 2nd 1 Oregon 7
N. Carolina 15 Penn 20
Total: 67 Total: 79
New Total: 206 236
I know that RCP and several reporting
agencies put Michigan and Pennsylvania in the Toss Up Category by I
do not see these as going for Romney due to current demographics and
historical voting records.
And now for the true toss up states:
Romney Obama
Colorado 9 Iowa 6
Florida 29 ME 2nd 1N Hampshire 4 Nevada 6
Ohio 18
Virginia 13
Wisconsin 10
Total: 83 Total 13
Final Total: 289 249
All of the above states are generally
within the margin of error of almost every poll and if it wasn't for
Romney's surge over the past three weeks due to his first debate
performance I believe most of these states with the exception of
Florida and Virginia would be in the Obama column.
Now state by state:
Romney
Colorado - The poll averages
currently have Romney with a slight lead of 0.2 percentage points (a
virtual tie) however Obama has only reached 50% in one poll (PPP)
which has oversampled Democrats a bit in the past. The Rasmussen
poll from 10/7 a few days after the first debate still gave Obama a 1
point lead but he was only at 48%. One other factor that troubles me
putting this one in the Romney column is that the current RCP average
has swung 9.2 percentage points from Obama's percentage in 2008 which
is greater than the average swing in the election. This one can go
either way however my final decision on putting this state in
Romney's column was that he is leading the RCP average and his
momentum.
Florida - Even though Obama is still
campaigning in this state the rumors that he has pulled several ads
and campaign employees from the state probably has some validity
since he is only polling at 46.5%. Also Rasmussen has put Romney
over 50% for the first time which is huge. Of all the toss ups I
have no problem putting this in Romney's Column.
New Hampshire – Giving this one to
Romney at the moment. He is leading by 1 percentage point in the RCP
plus Obama has only hit 50% in one poll so far. Even though New
Hampshire leans to the left the voters tend to be more
individualistic which bodes well for Romney. I know there are only 4
electoral votes in this state but the early closing of the polls will
provide an early indication of how election day is going for either
candidate. If you lose this state it will be a very long night for
your campaign.
Ohio – This one will come down to the
ground game. I know Obama is currently leading the RCP average
however the percentage swing from the 2008 election to the current
RCP average has only been 2.1 points which is three times less than
the national average. Obama only won this state by 4.6% percentage
points in 2008 and it is the only state that he is currently leading
in that he won by less than 5%. For some reason the numbers are not
adding up. I realize the Toledo area is going to go strong for Obama
due to the strong UAW presence in that area however the southern part
of the state which is coal country is certainly trending towards
Romney. Obviously the economic and budget situation is better in
Ohio than the rest of the country however over the past 24 months
this is mostly due to Gov. John Kasich (Republican). The Romney
campaign needs to get this fact across to the voters. I put Ohio in
the Romney Column since Obama is only polling a bit above 48% and the
percentage swing away from Obama is so much below the national
average.
Virginia – Virginia has gone
republican in every modern Presidential Election except the last one.
RCP currently has it as a tie but only because the CBS poll has
Obama at +5. Don't make me laugh. All of the other polls have
Virginia going for Romney. This state does have a huge federal
government foot print which bodes well for Obama but a large
percentage of that is defense department related which is probably
going to go almost two thirds for Romney. Of the toss ups for Romney
I feel almost as strongly about this state as Florida.
Wisconsin – I know this one is a bit
of a stretch for Romney since Obama is ahead by almost 3 percentage
points but he has three things going for him in this state. It is
the home state for Paul Ryan. Also last years recall election of
republican Governor Walker was unsuccessful and he won that election
by 6 to 7 percentage points. He won that election in spite of a huge
amount of money spent in opposing him. Finally Tommy Thompson (GOP)
is in a tough race for Senate which may bring out the republican vote
and favor Romney. As I said this one is a bit of a stretch but the
momentum is in Romney's favor. A win for Romney in the last debate
may put him over the top.
Obama
Iowa - Obama currently leads in the
RCP average by almost three. I do not see Romney overtaking Obama in
this one due to a couple of reasons. First off the percentage swing
away from Obama is right at the national average. Secondly, ethanol
subsidies and mandates. I have not heard much from Romney on this
issue but there may be an underlying feeling that he does not support
it. Even though the current stance on ethanol is an economic loser it is good for Iowa. Thirdly,
Romney has come out against the production tax credit for wind power.
It is another economic
loser but benefits Iowa. If we see Obama lose anymore ground in Iowa I may change my
mind. If Romney manages a win in Iowa I do not see how Obama can
win.
Nevada – Obama is currently leading
in the RCP average by 3. Also the swing away from Obama is already
9.5 percentage points which is 2 points ahead of the national
average. Also Harry Reid managed to win here in 2010 even with the
huge swings in the House and Senate. I almost put this one in
Romney's Column due to listening to the Fox Focus group made up of
Nevada voters but I still think it is to far of a stretch. Obama
most likely wins this state.
Maine 2nd Congressional District - Maine is one of two states which splits their electoral votes by district. This district was won by Obama by 11 percentage points in 2008. I have seen only one poll which actually put Romney up by 5 however I have doubts about this one. The district did get a bit of reshuffling in 2010 which may favor the republicans however the current congressman from that district has a huge lead over his republican challenger. This one I put in Obama's column. If you see this district go for Romney in election day polls it will be a long night for Obama and it will certainly show that the election is Romney's
Summary
Romney 289 Obama 249
Looking at the toss ups my biggest
concern is Ohio and Wisconsin. Romney can not lose both however he can
lose either one and still win. If he does win Ohio along with
Florida and Virginia he only needs to win 4 more electoral votes.
So Ohio is still the key state but not a must win that it was several
weeks ago.
A few other thoughts
The RCP average has had Romney slightly
ahead or tied in the national polls over the past week or so but the
current RCP state electoral vote count without toss ups has Obama up
277 to 261. Could this be one of those years where one candidate
wins the popular vote and loses the electoral vote?
Only two incumbent Presidents have gone
on to win re-election in the entire history of the US with a drop in
electoral votes when compared to their previous election. FDR
dropped from 523 electoral votes to 449 during his 3rd
election in 1940 and then to 432 votes in his 4th in 1944.
Woodrow Wilson dropped from 435 electoral votes to 277 in his 1916
re-election. Both candidates had a super majority (more than three
quarters) of the electoral votes in the previous election so it was
very difficult for them to lose even though Wilson almost did! There
is no doubt that Obama is going to fail to increase his electoral
vote count from 2008 and when you look at the current numbers his
electoral count ceiling is probably around 332 and that is if he wins
FL and VA. I realize just because you flip a coin ten times and it
comes up heads ten times that doesn't mean it will come up heads next
time however from a historical stand point it is not looking good for
Obama.
One other thing in favor of Romney is
his current perception. He is generally seen as a winner. Americans
have traditionally loved success and I am not sure that Obama is
perceived in that manner. That may be the final thing that sends
those last undecideds over to the Romney. Only time will tell.
Either way it will be a long night on November 6th.
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Romney-Obama Debate Part II
Greetings to All,
Before the debate at Hofstra on Tuesday night I had a bit of a discussion with a few coworkers about the questions to be asked at tonight's debate. The primary topic we discussed was how many of the questions posed to the candidates would be from voters who were not really undecided but were democratic "plants". Generally the consensus was that around 25% of the questions would definitely have a left leaning tilt based on the general political outlook of the undecided voter. So assuming an over/under of 25% lets see how good our predictions were:
Question #1: Mr. President, Governor Romney, as a 20-year-old college student, all I hear from professors, neighbors and others is that when I graduate, I will have little chance to get employment.
What can you say to reassure me, but more importantly my parents, that I will be able to sufficiently support myself after I graduate?
I viewed this question as fairly neutral though I would put this voter as slightly more to the left. One curious aspect of the question was that he identified himself as a college student but did not identify his major. Was he an art history major or was he a computer science major. The correct field of study makes all the difference in initial job searches.
Summary: Neutral
Question #2: Your energy secretary, Steven Chu, has now been on record three times stating it's not policy of his department to help lower gas prices. Do you agree with Secretary Chu that this is not
the job of the Energy Department?
I had a hard time deciding with this voter and the question. One obvious point is that he is upset with the current price of gas and he wants to blame somebody. He appeared to be upset with the President since he can't really blame Romney for this particular issue. Even though the question was probably a dig towards Obama I would put this voter more towards the left as well. The "tone" he expressed during the question gave me the impression that he believed that it is the job of the Energy Department (and the Federal Government) to control the price of gas. Obviously policies and regulations do affect the price of gas at the pump and the Obama administration has not helped in this area especially with the Ethanol mandates currently in effect.
This question also got one of the most heated responses from the candidates. I especially liked the blatant lie told by Obama that coal production was up since he has taken office and the reason gas prices have more than doubled since he took office was due to the recession in 2008 and the "low" gas prices at that particular time. I guess he believes that the current cost of gas is the new normal as Candy Crowley insinuated.
Summary: Neutral
Question #3: Governor Romney, you have stated that if you're elected president, you would plan to reduce the tax rates for all the tax brackets and that you would work with the Congress to eliminate
some deductions in order to make up for the loss in revenue. (I did not include the list of deductions)
This question was fairly impartial. I believe she was genuinely concerned about losing the home mortgage deduction and she wanted some reassurance from the Gov. that he did not intend to reduce or cut this deduction for middle class taxpayers especially since this one deduction is generally large enough to put most homeowners over the standard deduction. I didn't really get a read on whether this voter leaned one way or the other.
Summary: Neutral
Question #4: In what new ways do you intend to rectify the inequalities in the workplace, specifically regarding females making only 72 percent of what their male counterparts earn?
Leftist Voter and Leftist Question. The 72% gender pay gap has been debunked so many times I don't know where to start. However it is one of those talking points that the far left continues to repeat over and over again in the hopes to make it true. I'm surprised that she didn't ask the president if we should apply the principle of "from each according to his ability, to each according to his needs". Claiming this voter is undecided is about as ridiculous as thinking that the Mets still have a chance to win the World Series this year. This voter would vote democrat even if the candidate was Comrade Stalin or Castro.
Summary: LEFT
Question #5: Governor Romney, I am an undecided voter, because I'm disappointed with the lack of progress I've seen in the last four years. However, I do attribute much of America's economic and
international problems to the failings and missteps of the Bush administration. Since both you and President Bush are Republicans, I fear a return to the policies of those years should you win this election. What is the biggest difference between you and George W. Bush, and how do you differentiate yourself from George W. Bush?
I can say without a shadow of doubt that this voter is a leftist statist democrat. I seriously doubt she is undecided. The question was an obvious ploy to tie Romney to Bush. Whenever she used the word Bush or Republican in her question you could see the hatred on her facial expressions. No need to say anything else.
Summary: LEFT
Question #6: Mr. President, I voted for you in 2008. What have you done or accomplished to earn my vote in 2012? I'm not that optimistic as I was in 2012(2008). Most things I need for everyday living are very expensive.
I actually believed this guy. I believed he did vote for Obama in 2008 and that he is having second thoughts about doing it this time around. I think a fair amount of democratic voters believe he is undecided as well due to the hate tweets directed at him. Those tweets generally put forth this idea: "How dare an African American not vote for the great one." I'm wondering whether Candy Crowley knew if he was African American before she called on him. I bet Candy was hoping that Obama would have provided a much better answer than he did.
Summary: Neutral
Question #7: Mr. Romney, what do you plan on doing with immigrants without their green cards that are currently living here as productive members of society?
This undecided voter who just happened to be of latin decent actually states her position in her question. She basically let us know that she is for amnesty and illegal immigration provided that individual is a productive member of society. I guess it is OK if I don't pay my taxes provided I am a productive member of society. It is OK to steal if your a productive member of society. This is the old leftist rule that their is no wrong or right just varying shades of gray.
Summary: LEFT
Question #8: We were sitting around, talking about Libya, and we were reading and became aware of reports that the State Department refused extra security for our embassy in Benghazi, Libya, prior to
the attacks that killed four Americans. Who was it that denied enhanced security and why?
I am going to go out on a limb and say that his voter may have been leaning for Romney however was the question towards the political right. If Obama was a republican incumbent would the question have been asked any differently and the answer is no. Even Candy Crowley couldn't keep this question out of the discussion or she would have been destroyed by the pundits so the question was going to be asked no matter what.
The big surprise was that the President actually trapped himself by lying about stating he called it a terrorist act on day one. If you notice when Romney was dumbfounded that Obama actually made that statement and then reconfirmed it. Romney actually had to ask a third time. Obama then realized he goofed and his only response was "please proceed governor"
Summary: Neutral (was leaning right but the question did try to steer the responsibility towards the State Dept instead of the Presidency so went back to Neutral)
Question #9: President Obama, during the Democratic National Convention in 2008, you stated you wanted to keep AK-47s out of the hands of criminals. What has your administration done or planned to do to limit the availability of assault weapons?
I got a sense that this voter was leaning left/Obama and whenever you bring up gun control and ask what is being done to keep the guns out of the hands of criminals you immediately assume a left leaning individual. But then what a great opening for Fast and Furious and immediately my wishes were answered. I'm sure Candy Crowley didn't want FNF brought up during the debate. I am surprised she let that question through. FNF is one of the reasons gun control questions are brought up less frequently in this election cycle. The MSM wants that story to disappear.
Summary: Neutral
Question #10: The outsourcing of American jobs overseas has taken a toll on our economy. What plans do you have to put back and keep jobs here in the United States?
I'm going to quote Romney on this one, "Government does not create Jobs." This is generally a left leaning question but is a question that does get asked by many Americans. We do need to make sure China plays by the rules and actually we do not need the government for this. We can simply choose not to buy products made by the PRC. Wow what a concept!
Summary: Neutral
Question #11: Hi, Governor. I think this is a tough question. To each of you. What do you believe is the biggest misperception that the American people have about you as a man and a candidate? Using
specific examples, can you take this opportunity to debunk that misperception and set us straight?
Didn't get a feel for this voter but it was a fair question to ask for an undecided voter to either candidate so I am not going to lean one way or the other.
Summary: Neutral
THE FINAL SCORE
Three out of eleven questions were from obvious left leaning Democrats who in my personal opinion would have very little chance to vote for Romney. Their questions were straight out of the democratic playbook and claiming that these three voters are undecided is simply dumb.
Therefore 3/11 = 27.2 % (Man I was glad I took the over)
I tried to stay on target and analyze the questions and not the answers of the candidates but I apologize since I did interject some of the candidates answers.
Some other random thoughts for discussion:
If the debate was tilted toward the left and in favor of the Democratic candidate and the consensus is that the two candidates tied does that mean that Romney actually did win the debate?
Sununu states that Obama lives in his own world. Wow. I use to kid my brother that he lived in his own world. I called it Billy World. His name is Bill.
I just loved the Marine Vet on the Fox focus group especially when he dropped the BS Bomb. It is only a matter of time before someone drops the F Bomb. Is it time to create a delay/dump for the focus groups to prevent foul language on the airwaves? Not really. Also Frank Luntz compared one of the voters in his group to Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Loved "Ruths" statement that her lack of decision was to vote for Romney or not vote. Voting for Obama wasn't even in the cards!
Wow this was a long post. Until next time I will leave you with this Franklin Quote.
Before the debate at Hofstra on Tuesday night I had a bit of a discussion with a few coworkers about the questions to be asked at tonight's debate. The primary topic we discussed was how many of the questions posed to the candidates would be from voters who were not really undecided but were democratic "plants". Generally the consensus was that around 25% of the questions would definitely have a left leaning tilt based on the general political outlook of the undecided voter. So assuming an over/under of 25% lets see how good our predictions were:
Question #1: Mr. President, Governor Romney, as a 20-year-old college student, all I hear from professors, neighbors and others is that when I graduate, I will have little chance to get employment.
What can you say to reassure me, but more importantly my parents, that I will be able to sufficiently support myself after I graduate?
I viewed this question as fairly neutral though I would put this voter as slightly more to the left. One curious aspect of the question was that he identified himself as a college student but did not identify his major. Was he an art history major or was he a computer science major. The correct field of study makes all the difference in initial job searches.
Summary: Neutral
Question #2: Your energy secretary, Steven Chu, has now been on record three times stating it's not policy of his department to help lower gas prices. Do you agree with Secretary Chu that this is not
the job of the Energy Department?
I had a hard time deciding with this voter and the question. One obvious point is that he is upset with the current price of gas and he wants to blame somebody. He appeared to be upset with the President since he can't really blame Romney for this particular issue. Even though the question was probably a dig towards Obama I would put this voter more towards the left as well. The "tone" he expressed during the question gave me the impression that he believed that it is the job of the Energy Department (and the Federal Government) to control the price of gas. Obviously policies and regulations do affect the price of gas at the pump and the Obama administration has not helped in this area especially with the Ethanol mandates currently in effect.
This question also got one of the most heated responses from the candidates. I especially liked the blatant lie told by Obama that coal production was up since he has taken office and the reason gas prices have more than doubled since he took office was due to the recession in 2008 and the "low" gas prices at that particular time. I guess he believes that the current cost of gas is the new normal as Candy Crowley insinuated.
Summary: Neutral
Question #3: Governor Romney, you have stated that if you're elected president, you would plan to reduce the tax rates for all the tax brackets and that you would work with the Congress to eliminate
some deductions in order to make up for the loss in revenue. (I did not include the list of deductions)
This question was fairly impartial. I believe she was genuinely concerned about losing the home mortgage deduction and she wanted some reassurance from the Gov. that he did not intend to reduce or cut this deduction for middle class taxpayers especially since this one deduction is generally large enough to put most homeowners over the standard deduction. I didn't really get a read on whether this voter leaned one way or the other.
Summary: Neutral
Question #4: In what new ways do you intend to rectify the inequalities in the workplace, specifically regarding females making only 72 percent of what their male counterparts earn?
Leftist Voter and Leftist Question. The 72% gender pay gap has been debunked so many times I don't know where to start. However it is one of those talking points that the far left continues to repeat over and over again in the hopes to make it true. I'm surprised that she didn't ask the president if we should apply the principle of "from each according to his ability, to each according to his needs". Claiming this voter is undecided is about as ridiculous as thinking that the Mets still have a chance to win the World Series this year. This voter would vote democrat even if the candidate was Comrade Stalin or Castro.
Summary: LEFT
Question #5: Governor Romney, I am an undecided voter, because I'm disappointed with the lack of progress I've seen in the last four years. However, I do attribute much of America's economic and
international problems to the failings and missteps of the Bush administration. Since both you and President Bush are Republicans, I fear a return to the policies of those years should you win this election. What is the biggest difference between you and George W. Bush, and how do you differentiate yourself from George W. Bush?
I can say without a shadow of doubt that this voter is a leftist statist democrat. I seriously doubt she is undecided. The question was an obvious ploy to tie Romney to Bush. Whenever she used the word Bush or Republican in her question you could see the hatred on her facial expressions. No need to say anything else.
Summary: LEFT
Question #6: Mr. President, I voted for you in 2008. What have you done or accomplished to earn my vote in 2012? I'm not that optimistic as I was in 2012(2008). Most things I need for everyday living are very expensive.
I actually believed this guy. I believed he did vote for Obama in 2008 and that he is having second thoughts about doing it this time around. I think a fair amount of democratic voters believe he is undecided as well due to the hate tweets directed at him. Those tweets generally put forth this idea: "How dare an African American not vote for the great one." I'm wondering whether Candy Crowley knew if he was African American before she called on him. I bet Candy was hoping that Obama would have provided a much better answer than he did.
Summary: Neutral
Question #7: Mr. Romney, what do you plan on doing with immigrants without their green cards that are currently living here as productive members of society?
This undecided voter who just happened to be of latin decent actually states her position in her question. She basically let us know that she is for amnesty and illegal immigration provided that individual is a productive member of society. I guess it is OK if I don't pay my taxes provided I am a productive member of society. It is OK to steal if your a productive member of society. This is the old leftist rule that their is no wrong or right just varying shades of gray.
Summary: LEFT
Question #8: We were sitting around, talking about Libya, and we were reading and became aware of reports that the State Department refused extra security for our embassy in Benghazi, Libya, prior to
the attacks that killed four Americans. Who was it that denied enhanced security and why?
I am going to go out on a limb and say that his voter may have been leaning for Romney however was the question towards the political right. If Obama was a republican incumbent would the question have been asked any differently and the answer is no. Even Candy Crowley couldn't keep this question out of the discussion or she would have been destroyed by the pundits so the question was going to be asked no matter what.
The big surprise was that the President actually trapped himself by lying about stating he called it a terrorist act on day one. If you notice when Romney was dumbfounded that Obama actually made that statement and then reconfirmed it. Romney actually had to ask a third time. Obama then realized he goofed and his only response was "please proceed governor"
Summary: Neutral (was leaning right but the question did try to steer the responsibility towards the State Dept instead of the Presidency so went back to Neutral)
Question #9: President Obama, during the Democratic National Convention in 2008, you stated you wanted to keep AK-47s out of the hands of criminals. What has your administration done or planned to do to limit the availability of assault weapons?
I got a sense that this voter was leaning left/Obama and whenever you bring up gun control and ask what is being done to keep the guns out of the hands of criminals you immediately assume a left leaning individual. But then what a great opening for Fast and Furious and immediately my wishes were answered. I'm sure Candy Crowley didn't want FNF brought up during the debate. I am surprised she let that question through. FNF is one of the reasons gun control questions are brought up less frequently in this election cycle. The MSM wants that story to disappear.
Summary: Neutral
Question #10: The outsourcing of American jobs overseas has taken a toll on our economy. What plans do you have to put back and keep jobs here in the United States?
I'm going to quote Romney on this one, "Government does not create Jobs." This is generally a left leaning question but is a question that does get asked by many Americans. We do need to make sure China plays by the rules and actually we do not need the government for this. We can simply choose not to buy products made by the PRC. Wow what a concept!
Summary: Neutral
Question #11: Hi, Governor. I think this is a tough question. To each of you. What do you believe is the biggest misperception that the American people have about you as a man and a candidate? Using
specific examples, can you take this opportunity to debunk that misperception and set us straight?
Didn't get a feel for this voter but it was a fair question to ask for an undecided voter to either candidate so I am not going to lean one way or the other.
Summary: Neutral
THE FINAL SCORE
Three out of eleven questions were from obvious left leaning Democrats who in my personal opinion would have very little chance to vote for Romney. Their questions were straight out of the democratic playbook and claiming that these three voters are undecided is simply dumb.
Therefore 3/11 = 27.2 % (Man I was glad I took the over)
I tried to stay on target and analyze the questions and not the answers of the candidates but I apologize since I did interject some of the candidates answers.
Some other random thoughts for discussion:
If the debate was tilted toward the left and in favor of the Democratic candidate and the consensus is that the two candidates tied does that mean that Romney actually did win the debate?
Sununu states that Obama lives in his own world. Wow. I use to kid my brother that he lived in his own world. I called it Billy World. His name is Bill.
I just loved the Marine Vet on the Fox focus group especially when he dropped the BS Bomb. It is only a matter of time before someone drops the F Bomb. Is it time to create a delay/dump for the focus groups to prevent foul language on the airwaves? Not really. Also Frank Luntz compared one of the voters in his group to Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Loved "Ruths" statement that her lack of decision was to vote for Romney or not vote. Voting for Obama wasn't even in the cards!
Wow this was a long post. Until next time I will leave you with this Franklin Quote.
The U. S. Constitution doesn't guarantee happiness, only the pursuit of it.
You have to catch up with it yourself.
Friday, October 5, 2012
Inaugural Post
Greetings to All,
I originally wanted to post something pertaining to the current Presidential Campaign or even specifically to discuss the first debate but as this is my first post I would probably be getting ahead of myself. My one or two readers may not know where I am coming from or even where I am going so a little about me first.
I am a firm believer in limited government. The US Constitution was written by our founders to spell out that limited government however due to various "crises" and "statist creeping" we have allowed our limited Federal system to get out of hand. The current federal bureaucracy is a giant sloth (my apologies to sloths everywhere) which continues to gobble up large chunks of our economy. The growth rate of the federal budget far outstrips both the increase in GDP and the inflation rate.
I believe the biggest threat to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness is the huge bureaucracy that exists today. Remember the Politicians write and pass the laws but then it is a bureaucrat who "interprets" those laws and creates the rules which are then entered into the US Federal Code. It is the best interest of the bureaucrat to write the rules in such a manner that helps increase their power and also increase the number of jobs they control within their dominion.
The rules are often confusing and not easy to understand. Of course that requires additional people to interpret those rules so that the public can properly follow the rules. Again this adds to the required number of bureaucrats. In essence, this "monster" that we have created continues to evolve and create new ways to increase it's size.
OK....enough ranting for now.
As you can see from my background picture, I have been in awe of Benjamin Franklin my entire life. Was he perfect...No. But he was certainly the American "Renaissance" Man. A writer, inventor, statesmen, and from the stories a pretty "fun" guy. Plus he loved a good beer. What more can I say.
Until next time.....
I originally wanted to post something pertaining to the current Presidential Campaign or even specifically to discuss the first debate but as this is my first post I would probably be getting ahead of myself. My one or two readers may not know where I am coming from or even where I am going so a little about me first.
I am a firm believer in limited government. The US Constitution was written by our founders to spell out that limited government however due to various "crises" and "statist creeping" we have allowed our limited Federal system to get out of hand. The current federal bureaucracy is a giant sloth (my apologies to sloths everywhere) which continues to gobble up large chunks of our economy. The growth rate of the federal budget far outstrips both the increase in GDP and the inflation rate.
I believe the biggest threat to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness is the huge bureaucracy that exists today. Remember the Politicians write and pass the laws but then it is a bureaucrat who "interprets" those laws and creates the rules which are then entered into the US Federal Code. It is the best interest of the bureaucrat to write the rules in such a manner that helps increase their power and also increase the number of jobs they control within their dominion.
The rules are often confusing and not easy to understand. Of course that requires additional people to interpret those rules so that the public can properly follow the rules. Again this adds to the required number of bureaucrats. In essence, this "monster" that we have created continues to evolve and create new ways to increase it's size.
OK....enough ranting for now.
As you can see from my background picture, I have been in awe of Benjamin Franklin my entire life. Was he perfect...No. But he was certainly the American "Renaissance" Man. A writer, inventor, statesmen, and from the stories a pretty "fun" guy. Plus he loved a good beer. What more can I say.
Until next time.....
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