Of the states that have current active polling Obamas current RCP percentage has dropped an average of 7.41 percentage points compared to his 2008 actual voting numbers. Of the 21 states (plus 2 congressional districts in ME and NE) with active polling only Arizona has improved for Obama when compared to 2008 but Romney still has over a 5% lead in that state.
Of the eight states which Obama won in 2008 by less than 10 percentage points he maintains a very small lead in only two of them (OH and IA) however both are within the margin of error for most polls.
Now for the solid states for each candidate:
Romney Obama
Alabama 9 California 55
Alaska 3 Delaware 3Arkansas 6 DC 3
Idaho 4 Hawaii 4
Kansas 6 Illinois 20
Kentucky 8 Maine 2
Louisiana 8 ME 1st 1
Mississippi 6 Maryland 10
Nebraska 2 Mass 11
NE 1st & 3rd 2 New York 29
N Dakota 3 Rhode Island 4
Oklahoma 7 Vermont 3
S Carolina 9 Washington 12
S Dakota 3
Tennessee 11
Texas 38
Utah 6
W Virginia 5
Wyoming 3
Total: 139 Total: 157
The above states have little or no
advertising and very minimal ground games. There is no active
polling and the vote percentages from the last election virtually
guarantee these votes are locked up.
Now for the states where each candidate
has at least a 5 percentage lead and I don't see them changing before
election day:
Romney Obama
Arizona 11 Connecticut 7
Georgia 16 Michigan 16Indiana 11 Minnesota 10
Missouri 10 New Jersey 14
Montana 3 New Mexico 5
NE 2nd 1 Oregon 7
N. Carolina 15 Penn 20
Total: 67 Total: 79
New Total: 206 236
I know that RCP and several reporting
agencies put Michigan and Pennsylvania in the Toss Up Category by I
do not see these as going for Romney due to current demographics and
historical voting records.
And now for the true toss up states:
Romney Obama
Colorado 9 Iowa 6
Florida 29 ME 2nd 1N Hampshire 4 Nevada 6
Ohio 18
Virginia 13
Wisconsin 10
Total: 83 Total 13
Final Total: 289 249
All of the above states are generally
within the margin of error of almost every poll and if it wasn't for
Romney's surge over the past three weeks due to his first debate
performance I believe most of these states with the exception of
Florida and Virginia would be in the Obama column.
Now state by state:
Romney
Colorado - The poll averages
currently have Romney with a slight lead of 0.2 percentage points (a
virtual tie) however Obama has only reached 50% in one poll (PPP)
which has oversampled Democrats a bit in the past. The Rasmussen
poll from 10/7 a few days after the first debate still gave Obama a 1
point lead but he was only at 48%. One other factor that troubles me
putting this one in the Romney column is that the current RCP average
has swung 9.2 percentage points from Obama's percentage in 2008 which
is greater than the average swing in the election. This one can go
either way however my final decision on putting this state in
Romney's column was that he is leading the RCP average and his
momentum.
Florida - Even though Obama is still
campaigning in this state the rumors that he has pulled several ads
and campaign employees from the state probably has some validity
since he is only polling at 46.5%. Also Rasmussen has put Romney
over 50% for the first time which is huge. Of all the toss ups I
have no problem putting this in Romney's Column.
New Hampshire – Giving this one to
Romney at the moment. He is leading by 1 percentage point in the RCP
plus Obama has only hit 50% in one poll so far. Even though New
Hampshire leans to the left the voters tend to be more
individualistic which bodes well for Romney. I know there are only 4
electoral votes in this state but the early closing of the polls will
provide an early indication of how election day is going for either
candidate. If you lose this state it will be a very long night for
your campaign.
Ohio – This one will come down to the
ground game. I know Obama is currently leading the RCP average
however the percentage swing from the 2008 election to the current
RCP average has only been 2.1 points which is three times less than
the national average. Obama only won this state by 4.6% percentage
points in 2008 and it is the only state that he is currently leading
in that he won by less than 5%. For some reason the numbers are not
adding up. I realize the Toledo area is going to go strong for Obama
due to the strong UAW presence in that area however the southern part
of the state which is coal country is certainly trending towards
Romney. Obviously the economic and budget situation is better in
Ohio than the rest of the country however over the past 24 months
this is mostly due to Gov. John Kasich (Republican). The Romney
campaign needs to get this fact across to the voters. I put Ohio in
the Romney Column since Obama is only polling a bit above 48% and the
percentage swing away from Obama is so much below the national
average.
Virginia – Virginia has gone
republican in every modern Presidential Election except the last one.
RCP currently has it as a tie but only because the CBS poll has
Obama at +5. Don't make me laugh. All of the other polls have
Virginia going for Romney. This state does have a huge federal
government foot print which bodes well for Obama but a large
percentage of that is defense department related which is probably
going to go almost two thirds for Romney. Of the toss ups for Romney
I feel almost as strongly about this state as Florida.
Wisconsin – I know this one is a bit
of a stretch for Romney since Obama is ahead by almost 3 percentage
points but he has three things going for him in this state. It is
the home state for Paul Ryan. Also last years recall election of
republican Governor Walker was unsuccessful and he won that election
by 6 to 7 percentage points. He won that election in spite of a huge
amount of money spent in opposing him. Finally Tommy Thompson (GOP)
is in a tough race for Senate which may bring out the republican vote
and favor Romney. As I said this one is a bit of a stretch but the
momentum is in Romney's favor. A win for Romney in the last debate
may put him over the top.
Obama
Iowa - Obama currently leads in the
RCP average by almost three. I do not see Romney overtaking Obama in
this one due to a couple of reasons. First off the percentage swing
away from Obama is right at the national average. Secondly, ethanol
subsidies and mandates. I have not heard much from Romney on this
issue but there may be an underlying feeling that he does not support
it. Even though the current stance on ethanol is an economic loser it is good for Iowa. Thirdly,
Romney has come out against the production tax credit for wind power.
It is another economic
loser but benefits Iowa. If we see Obama lose anymore ground in Iowa I may change my
mind. If Romney manages a win in Iowa I do not see how Obama can
win.
Nevada – Obama is currently leading
in the RCP average by 3. Also the swing away from Obama is already
9.5 percentage points which is 2 points ahead of the national
average. Also Harry Reid managed to win here in 2010 even with the
huge swings in the House and Senate. I almost put this one in
Romney's Column due to listening to the Fox Focus group made up of
Nevada voters but I still think it is to far of a stretch. Obama
most likely wins this state.
Maine 2nd Congressional District - Maine is one of two states which splits their electoral votes by district. This district was won by Obama by 11 percentage points in 2008. I have seen only one poll which actually put Romney up by 5 however I have doubts about this one. The district did get a bit of reshuffling in 2010 which may favor the republicans however the current congressman from that district has a huge lead over his republican challenger. This one I put in Obama's column. If you see this district go for Romney in election day polls it will be a long night for Obama and it will certainly show that the election is Romney's
Summary
Romney 289 Obama 249
Looking at the toss ups my biggest
concern is Ohio and Wisconsin. Romney can not lose both however he can
lose either one and still win. If he does win Ohio along with
Florida and Virginia he only needs to win 4 more electoral votes.
So Ohio is still the key state but not a must win that it was several
weeks ago.
A few other thoughts
The RCP average has had Romney slightly
ahead or tied in the national polls over the past week or so but the
current RCP state electoral vote count without toss ups has Obama up
277 to 261. Could this be one of those years where one candidate
wins the popular vote and loses the electoral vote?
Only two incumbent Presidents have gone
on to win re-election in the entire history of the US with a drop in
electoral votes when compared to their previous election. FDR
dropped from 523 electoral votes to 449 during his 3rd
election in 1940 and then to 432 votes in his 4th in 1944.
Woodrow Wilson dropped from 435 electoral votes to 277 in his 1916
re-election. Both candidates had a super majority (more than three
quarters) of the electoral votes in the previous election so it was
very difficult for them to lose even though Wilson almost did! There
is no doubt that Obama is going to fail to increase his electoral
vote count from 2008 and when you look at the current numbers his
electoral count ceiling is probably around 332 and that is if he wins
FL and VA. I realize just because you flip a coin ten times and it
comes up heads ten times that doesn't mean it will come up heads next
time however from a historical stand point it is not looking good for
Obama.
One other thing in favor of Romney is
his current perception. He is generally seen as a winner. Americans
have traditionally loved success and I am not sure that Obama is
perceived in that manner. That may be the final thing that sends
those last undecideds over to the Romney. Only time will tell.
Either way it will be a long night on November 6th.
Well, you have a few things right - the Swing States - I'll give you that, with the exception of ME. Don't see the point of even talking about ME (are they still in the Union???). As for the rest or your math. First, the polls can't trust a single one. Too many, too often, over-sampled, and under-sampled, who knows, they are a mess. I believe that the elections comes down to one state and if Romney doesn't win it, he doesn't win, and smart money says he can't win it: Ohio!!! Furthermore, if u seriously believe Romney wins Ohio, then he wins Iowa too, but again, I don't see that happening. As for Colo and NV - early voting and Romney's immigration remarks have hurt his chances with both states. Ohio, where 1/8 jobs are related to the auto bailout will be Obama's mother's milk. Moreover, with the early voting now extended to everyone, Obama supporters should turn out 'big'. If you are going to rely on polls as your litmus test, then logic would suggest that it goes for Obama. Also, early voting has also leaned heavily towards Obama so far. WI hasn't gone republican since '84 and there no reason to think it will turn now; Ryan isn't that popular in his own state.
ReplyDeleteAs I stated earlier, I don't trust a single poll in this race. I think anyone trying to conger up a 'real' prediction in this race is only writing to write. This entire election could turn on a dime. Still have one debate and plenty of time for Romney to put his foot in his mouth or the Obama team to drop MOAB on the Romney campaign or vice-versa.
I like your logic, but I also like Unicorns and Leprechaun's, but that doesn't make them real. Also, your conclusions/assumptions about Ohio are dead wrong. Ohio and it's comeback have everything to do with the auto rescue. Moreover, ALL of the NW swing states saw a positive growth in unemployment according to the BLS, which hurts Romney.
I hate to say I told you so. Wait! I love to say I told you so. Boy, did I nail it. Ohio, Ohio, Ohio. Can't ignore 1/8 jobs and as I said, it would be Obama's Mother's Milk, and it was. And as Ohio goes so does the rest of the Rust Belt.
ReplyDeleteThis election should have told you and the rest of America a few things. First. the craziness of the Tea Party is not and will never be a national platform. Sure, Tea Party folks will thrive within gerrymandered districts and in deeply Red States, but not a national level; the country's demographics have spoken and will guarantee that going forward. CO and NV is all the proof you need. If you want more, take a look at the number of Tea Party Nutjobs that lost (Walsh, West, Hayworth, and Buerkle).
Reading through your essay's, I can see your frustration, but I believe that your anger and frustration is misguided and directed at the wrong people. I believe your frustration should lay on the doorstep of an incompetent Congress. Sure, the country has issues, too many to discuss within this format, but the people have spoken and they demand action - from both parties. They demand action on the Fiscal Cliff (slope), Immigration, and Taxes, and they demand it now. Moreover, and more importantly, the people demand the obstruction that the Republican Party brings to the table come to an end.
Final thought - if the GOP doesn't change their 19th century thinking, they will find themselves in the dustbin of history. Change has come, change is here, and change is moving forward. Get on the bus, Jack!!!